I tend to go for perceived value as well. So, sometimes I end up paying close to the limit, other times I am able to find a great deal.
I am in a social group that does an ornament/holiday item exchange. Last year most of the gifts appeared to be in the $8-$10 limit; however a few were clearly over. A few members brought this up at a meeting this year where we were discussing the exchange and we all agreed to go with "actual cost of item" and not what we paid. It made for a much better exchange this year, where some members didn't feel bad like last year because their gifts didn't look as expensive.
So, if it was me, I would go with the RS candy--price fits in the range for one box.
Second choice would be a candle, but the candle only without the tote. It might be perceived as tad over by those familiar with BBW pricing; but could be perceived as way over the limit by those that don't (they might think it closer to retail price, not thinking you may have gotten it on sale.)